Hispanic voters are heading into the 2026 midterm elections feeling economically squeezed and increasingly skeptical of the direction of the country. 

Latinos are also especially motivated to turn out this year, which could affect battleground races from Florida to Texas and Arizona. But while President Trump has lost some of the ground he gained with Latino voters in 2024, Democrats are not running away with their support either, according to a new bipartisan survey by UnidosUS, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization.

The poll offers a glimpse at the shifting views of Latino voters, who could help determine whether Democrats win control of the House and Senate, or whether Republicans preserve their narrow majorities this fall.

Some 54% of Latino voters plan to vote for a Democratic House candidate in November, and 27% plan to vote for a Republican, with 19% undecided, according to the poll of 3,000 registered Latino voters, which was conducted nationally and across 32 competitive congressional districts by BSP Research and Shaw & Company Research between April 27 and May 14. The poll’s margin of error was 1.8%.

That 54% figure lines up exactly with the Democratic share of the Latino vote in the 2024 House elections, according to exit polls that year — which is a notable drop from previous cycles. Democrats won 60% of the Latino House vote in 2022, 63% in 2020 and 69% in 2018. 

UnidosUS notes that both parties are underperforming their 2024 levels among Latinos, which could be a sign of the broader voter discontent across the electorate towards the leadership of both parties.

One-fourth of Latino Trump backers wouldn’t vote for him again

Latinos played a key role in Mr. Trump’s return to the White House. The president won 48% of Latino voters in 2024, a 12-point jump from four years earlier, according to Pew Research Center. The president’s improved fortunes with the Latino community — once a heavily Democratic group — helped him win in swing states like Arizona and fend off Democratic advances in Texas.

But one in four Latino voters who supported Mr. Trump in 2024 say they would not vote for him again, according to the UnidosUS survey. That figure has climbed from 9% in April 2025 and 13% last November, according to previous surveys by the Latino civil rights group. 

Sixty-seven percent of Latino voters disapprove of Mr. Trump’s job performance, with majority disapproval in every region surveyed. The slide in the poll among Hispanics also includes Mr. Trump’s home state of Florida, where 51% disapprove.

The top drivers of Latinos’ opinion on Mr. Trump: the cost of living and inflation (44%), immigration enforcement (33%), jobs and wages (26%) and the war with Iran (25%). 

Turnout could be high — but Democratic enthusiasm is mixed

Seventy-six percent of those surveyed say they are “100% certain” or “almost certain” that they will vote in November, putting projected Latino turnout on pace with the record-setting 2018 midterms, which helped propel a Democratic wave that year.

But the survey contains warnings for Democrats as well. 

The UnidosUS poll notes that just 31% of Hispanic Democrats say they are motivated to vote in order to support their own candidates, compared to 52% who are mainly motivated to vote to support their community. Some 52% of Hispanic Republicans are motivated to support their favored candidates — an enthusiasm gap that could impact turnout in battleground districts.

Economic issues are the top priority — followed by immigration

Widespread discontent with the state of the economy helped propel Mr. Trump to victory in 2024. Now, most Americans still hold a dim view of the economy, dragging down the president’s support. A WTX US News poll from earlier this month found 27% of Americans approve of the president’s handling of inflation, and 50% of voters believe his policies will make the economy worse in the long run.

The economy and affordability were also a connecting thread for most participants in the UnidosUS survey. The top four issues Latino voters want their members of Congress to address are all pocketbook concerns: cost of living and inflation (60%), the economy and jobs/wages (40%), health care (37%) and housing (27%). Immigration ranks fifth, at 21%.

Just 15% of Latino voters say they live comfortably, and 68% believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, up from 60% in an April 2025 survey sponsored by UnidosUS. Some 66% say Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans are not focused enough on improving the economy and 52% expect the president’s economic policies will leave them worse off over the next 12 months.

On immigration, an overwhelming majority of Latino voters, including a majority of Republicans,  support offering legal status to long-residing undocumented immigrants, even when the policy is described as “amnesty.” More than seven in 10 oppose additional funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement without conditions, and 44% say they or members of their community fear immigration authorities will harass or arrest them even if they are U.S. citizens or legal residents.

Most Latino voters — 64% — oppose the U.S.’ military action in Iran. As Mr. Trump dangles the possibility of military intervention in Cuba, 57% of Latino voters are opposed to the idea — with the exception of Cuban Americans, more than six in 10 of whom would support it.

All eyes on Texas

Texas could be a key proving ground for both parties’ efforts to secure Latino support. Democrats are hoping to win their first Senate race in the state in decades, and Republicans are aiming to win several more House districts after redrawing the state’s congressional maps last year.

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton will face off against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Longtime incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn was defeated by Paxton in a primary runoff on Tuesday.

Some 51% of Texas Latinos are either planning to vote for Talarico or leaning toward him, and 24% favor Paxton, according to the UnidosUS poll, which was taken after Talarico won the Democratic nomination but before Paxton won the GOP nomination in a runoff. Another 18% are undecided.

Republicans have taken solace in Texas Latino voters’ rightward shift in recent years, especially in communities along the U.S.-Mexico border that were once deep blue.

“Over the past decade, Hispanic voters have been steadily moving toward Republicans. This coalition didn’t happen by accident. It’s being built by candidates like Eric Flores and Tano Tijerina, a new generation focused on delivering economic opportunity, public safety, and the American Dream,” Christian Martinez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm, said in a statement. “That’s how Republicans are earning the trust of Hispanic communities, and how we will expand and keep the House.”

GOP Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chair of the NRCC, has described Latinos in recent months as “the most important voting bloc” nationwide.

However, House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged earlier this year that frustration with Mr. Trump’s hardline immigration policies had been a drag on support. He said in March that Republicans were in “course correction mode” with Latino voters.

Democratic strategist and Talarico campaign adviser Chuck Rocha pointed to immigration as a possible catalyst to cause Texas Latinos to shift back. Talarico won the Democratic nomination against Rep. Jasmine Crockett in part due to a surge of Latino turnout, a WTX US News analysis found.

“Latino voters in Texas have been moving right over the last few cycles, but because of failed promises by Donald Trump, and ICE agents in our street[s], picking up law-abiding immigrants, the Latino community is dramatically shifting back towards the Democrats,” said Rocha, a WTX US News contributor. “Something’s happening in Texas, and Latinos are sick and tired of being sick and tired.”