Nawrocki elected president of Poland after dramatic late swing

What Happened

Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, has narrowly won Poland’s presidential election, defeating liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

With 100% of votes counted, Nawrocki secured 50.9%, compared to Trzaskowski’s 49.1%, overturning exit polls which had originally projected a Trzaskowski victory.

The result represents a significant political win for the Polish right, despite PiS losing parliamentary power 18 months ago.

What It Means

Though largely ceremonial, Poland’s president holds the power of veto, which Nawrocki is expected to use to block key reforms proposed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU coalition, including judicial changes and abortion law liberalisation.

Nawrocki is a strong proponent of Polish sovereignty, traditional Catholic values, and is sceptical of EU climate and migration policies. He supports Ukraine militarily but opposes its accession to NATO or the EU during the ongoing war.

The result is likely to reinvigorate the PiS base ahead of the next parliamentary elections in 2027, and sets up a renewed clash between the presidency and government over Poland’s future in Europe.

What Next

Nawrocki will succeed outgoing conservative President Andrzej Duda, who endorsed Nawrocki and congratulated him for what he described as a “heroic fight”. With the presidential veto intact and the parliamentary majority still narrow, Prime Minister Tusk faces a bumpy path ahead for his reform agenda.

Both candidates supported aid to Ukraine, but differed sharply on Poland’s EU trajectory — a division likely to define Polish politics over the next two years.