The European Commission dismissed concerns over jet fuel shortages on Friday, a day after the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) leader, Fatih Birol, warned that aviation fuel was enough for roughly another six weeks amid the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen acknowledged that the market is “tight” but said “there are currently no fuel shortages” in the EU, based on information from the oil coordination group, which convenes industry and EU countries and has been meeting weekly with the EU executive to assess the situation.

A day earlier, IEA’s chief Fatih Birol warned about the increasing scarcity of jet fuel in Europe, saying that “flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of a lack of jet fuel” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Jet fuel prices have increased by 95% since the United States and Israel launched military attacks against Iran on 28 February. The war has culminated in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy trade route handling around 20% of global crude oil exports, placing significant strain on global energy markets.

The IEA had previously warned about the severity of constrained supplies, identifying jet fuel as the most affected refined product due to disruptions in the Strait, and foreseeing shortages in April and May.

Aviation sector flags jet fuel crisis

The warning was backed by the airport sector, which urged the European Commission on 9 April to act on the plausible eventuality that a jet fuel shortage in the EU is an “imminent systemic risk” due to geopolitical disruption.

“At this stage, we understand that if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next 3 weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” reads a letter from Airports Council International (ACI) Europe dated 9 April.

ACI Europe pointed to an analysis of jet fuel supply at European airports, focusing on the level of strategic jet fuel reserves and the impact of military activity on jet fuel demand, saying it “only reinforces our concerns.”

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), representing several airlines, estimated on Friday that “by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel”.

“Along with doing everything possible to secure alternative supply lines, it’s important that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Dutch airline KLM has cancelled more than 150 European flights due to rising jet fuel costs. Other airlines have started cutting back on flight routes or axing routes entirely.

The Commission maintains that there is “no indication of systemic fuel shortages” that would lead to widespread flight cancellations, saying that “these decisions are taken by individual airports”.

Cautiously optimistic

Despite clashing with the IEA’s and industry’s warnings, the Commission said it is nonetheless “preparing for possible supply shortages for jet fuels,” adding that they “remain a concern”.

“The European Union will be preparing to launch possible coordinated actions as regards jet fuels,” Itkonen told reporters, noting the bloc keeps emergency stocks that can be released.

“Despite these assessments of how long or not (will jet fuel be available), it does not mean that we will be completely running out of jet fuel,” Itkonen added, noting the fuel is part of a global market, supported by continuous production imports and stocks.

The EU’s refineries account for roughly 70% of the bloc’s jet fuel consumption, with the remainder reliant on Middle Eastern imports.

EU transport ministers will hold an emergency meeting on 21 April with likely discussions on jet fuels.